Seven c Premium #79 🏴‍☠️

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Hello and welcome to the 79th Seven c Premium newsletter.

79 weeks straight I have been scouring on-chain data to provide you with the best insights to tackle crypto head on, here’s last weeks trading education:

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$BTC price teetered around the high side of value and then rotated to the low side followed by another attempt at breaking out with the support of some fed news (FOMC etc.) which has been rejected followed by now again sitting exactly where we were when I was writing this section last week lol

We’ve been saying this for weeks and have correctly identified the nature of this environment.

We will continue to keep an eye on this bracketed value and determine if

buying continues to step in higher for a more prolonged rally. Until then be mindful of the possibility of another roll-over where 80 doesn’t hold and the market tries to test conviction in the 70s again.

It seems that across the board there is heavy disinterest all the way from CT to most of the people who I respect as traders in terms of managing and being aggressively involved in the market currently. This can obviously change with a few green and red candles because this market is heavily driven by reflexivity (higher price → higher price, lower price → even lower price).

Let’s just do a quick run through starting from the monthly chart (the current candle is still 9 days away from a monthly close). This pull back has been on the order of ~30% which is actually only a few % away from the yen carry trade blow up which was on the order of ~33%. The monthly structure remains intact currently despite this pull-back - however one can argue this is a good amount of volatility at an important milestone (100k) which points to the interim conclusion that 100k for 1 BTC is deemed expensive by participants currently.

On the weekly chart, we can see the loss of the swing EMAs and price is pressing up against them from the underside currently i.e. safe to say mid 80s to 90 is now resistance and if there is to be more upside we would need to see these reclaimed decisively.

Moving to the daily chart, we’ve been in this no value established zone and have been trending down since late Jan of this year. When we first broken down from value above, I pointed out the market would find difficulty in establishing a trend unless price accepts into value higher or lower - that’s remained the case until now. Any semblance of a “rally” has been sold into leading to choppy price action.

This will remain the case until participants receive new information and determine that the current prices are too expensive or are being provided at a steep discount.

For more shorter term, H1-H4 the local area that I’m looking to get flipped decisively is 85 first and then 87 which can give us the breathing room to be able to get to the low 90s again.

This is a framework you can use to quickly get a sense of the environment. It’s always helpful to start with higher timeframe charts and work your way down - remain unbiased in your views. If something seems to give you some kind of hurt, understand that this is exactly what needs to be weeded out.

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Safe to say, utilising this would have allowed you to make some money + avoid you losing it if you combined it with the smart money alts to pay attention to, so what else does this newsletter have?

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